Bitcoin's Macro Index Flashes "Buy Signal," Price Surges to $95K

Bitcoin’s Macro Chain Index has recently flashed a “buy signal” for the first time since 2022. That might just be a sign that a new bull run is beginning! This signal arrives in tandem with Bitcoin bouncing back from a recent low of $74,450 recorded on April 6, rallying back up to nearly $95,650. Adding credence to this recovery is the presence of rising open interest and positive funding rates, indicating that confidence is returning to the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin's Rollercoaster

Then, Bitcoin took a nosedive and fell by as much as 32%. This crash came right on the heels of its record high of almost $110,000 set in January. The steep drop occurred in parallel with widespread global economic uncertainty. This was compounded by US President Donald Trump’s global trade war, which further raised market volatility. Bitcoin’s true capabilities as a stable store of value were recently highlighted during these turbulent times. It piqued their interest as a long-term investment destination and safe-haven bet.

That all changed in the second week of April when Bitcoin put in a local bottom underneath $74,450. Since then the cryptocurrency has proved resilient, recovering back to $95,650 and change. This recovery has been part of a larger recovery on the market, supported by a revival of general investor interest and optimistic signs from the market overall.

Analyzing Open Interest and Funding Rates

In addition, open interest — the total number of outstanding derivative contracts — fell right from $11.9 billion to $7.5 billion. This drop was just from January to the beginning of April, reflecting a shocking 36.9% drop. Over the last three weeks, speculators increased OI 29.3%. It crashed from $9.7 billion to $7.5 billion, crashing down on that tide of increasing participation and bearish sentiment. Open interest overall has absolutely exploded, including on exchanges like Binance. This rising difficulty happens to overlap with Bitcoin’s recent price appreciation in spot markets.

Futures funding rates stay significantly positive. These rates reflect the periodic payments traded between buyers and sellers of perpetual futures contracts. This means that those holding long positions are covering a cost to short sellers, which is a sign of a strong bullish sentiment from traders.

Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment

In April, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumped above its 52-week moving average. This technical signal has a good track record of signaling the start of Bitcoin bull runs. As we speak, that crossover is taking place and our Macro Chain Index just recently flashed a “buy signal.” This potent mix makes it likely that Bitcoin will soon blast above its key psychological resistance at $100,000. In the past, Bitcoin’s price has tended to surge a minimum of 50% once these formations break out.