ARK Invest just came out with a refreshed Bitcoin price prediction – this one predicting it could reach $2.4 million by 2030. This projection is based on an analysis of Total Addressable Markets (TAMs) and penetration rates. It specifically zeroes in on four main factors driving demand for and thus value of Bitcoin. The analysis identifies several factors driving Bitcoin's price appreciation, including increased institutional investment and its role as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
The investment management firm’s new estimate represents an $800,000 jump from its prior forecast of $1.5 million. Our bear case scenario for Bitcoin has increased to $500,000. Aside from indicating a very positive long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency, this change has some major implications on the market.
According to ARK Invest’s analysis, Bitcoin price could climb as high as $2.4 million in the firm’s bull case analysis. So this updated forecast is about 40% higher than the base model projection of just under $1.2 million. The bear case scenario—as the more conservative outlook is often called—was revised down from $300,000 to $500,000.
The firm’s model is able to take advantage of Bitcoin’s “active supply.” This factors in lost or long-held coins providing a more accurate picture of the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply. In their base case scenario, ARK Invest projects a CAGR of Bitcoin prices at about 53%. Even in their bearish case scenario, they predict a CAGR of around 32%.
"While institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case. Interestingly, nation-state treasuries, corporate treasuries, and Bitcoin’s decentralized financial services contribute relatively little in each case." - David Puell
Our analysis uncovers the main drivers behind Bitcoin’s price rally over the last couple months. Institutional investments Institutional investments have been a big driver of this bullish narrative. Other countries will follow suit in making Bitcoin a reserve asset. This would be a massive catalyst for Bitcoin price appreciation. ARK Invest’s bullish scenario implies a price of $1 million / Bitcoin by 2030.
Leading industry experts such as Michael Saylor have similarly made bitcoin future predictions that are bullish in nature. Saylor is betting that Bitcoin’s market capitalization will eventually rise to $500 trillion. This explosive development will greatly exceed all conventional property like gold, actual property and long-term monetary securities. Thomas Fahrer also expresses an optimistic view of Bitcoin’s long-term price potential.
"The estimates constructed with this more experimental methodology are more aggressive than those in our bear, base, and bull cases." - ARK Invest report
