Ever seen a friend hit the jackpot – or get wiped out – on Bitcoin? Take the perception of a high-stakes poker game. Now, imagine those same cards being traded in for dollar amounts on a graph that jiggles like a sugar-high goat! That's the Bitcoin experience in a nutshell: exhilarating, terrifying, and potentially life-changing.

Greed is Good? Or is it?

Bitcoin’s has had quite a run lately, breaking through $100k. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at “greed,” which, to be honest, scares the hell out of me. Remember Icarus? Flew too close to the sun, wax wings melted, cannonball. Greed can be blinding.

When Bitcoin was last this spicy, my neighbor Dave took out a second mortgage to buy in. Six months later, he was forced to sell his prized ’67 Mustang to save himself. (He didn't listen to my advice, unfortunately.) We know how easy it can be to get caught up in the excitement, particularly when you read stories about how people built their fortunes overnight. That Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) is a helluva drug. It's the same feeling you get when everyone's raving about a restaurant you haven't tried or a concert you didn't get tickets to. Except this time, what’s at stake is your hard-earned taxpayer money.

$170,000 or Crashing Back to Earth?

Egrag Crypto is tossing out a $170,000 target IF and that’s a big IF, Bitcoin takes out its previous all-time high. Binance founder CZ (Changpeng Zhao) is even more bullish, predicting $500,000 to $1 million this cycle. Those numbers are intoxicating. This is akin to being told you’ll receive a winning lottery ticket.

That's a recipe for a serious correction. Think of it like this: Bitcoin’s price is a stretched rubber band. And the farther you pull it, the more painful that elastic band return will be. Are we at the snapping point? Maybe.

  • Over $925 million in crypto positions got liquidated recently.
  • The RSI is screaming "overbought," which means a pullback is likely.
  • There's massive sell pressure near the all-time high.

Everyone says, "This time it's different." Institutional adoption, government interest, etc. Okay, maybe. But human nature hasn't changed. Greed, fear, herd mentality – all still being used. Ok fine, perhaps a favorable US crypto administration is an assist, but man, do governments switch course quicker than you can change your socks.

Is This Time Really Different?

I see a bull flag on the weekly charts, a potential move to $182,200, but frankly, I'm more interested in protecting my downside. I’m no historian, but I’m imagining the dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, the tulip mania. Every boom has a bust.

Bitcoin a really cool tech, and it could change the world of finance for sure. But it's also incredibly risky. Do not allow the allure of huge, unrealized upside to distract you from the equally huge, realized downside.

Well, are you looking to ride the $170,000 rollercoaster? Or will you simply sit on the sidelines, cocktail in hand, happy with a lower, but less risky, upside. The choice is yours. Just remember Dave and his Mustang.

  • Don't invest more than you can afford to lose. Seriously.
  • Diversify. Don't put all your eggs in the Bitcoin basket.
  • Have an exit strategy. Know when you're going to take profits.
  • Ignore the hype. Do your own research.
  • Control your emotions. FOMO is the enemy.

Bitcoin is a fascinating technology, and it might revolutionize finance. But it's also incredibly risky. Don't let the potential for massive gains blind you to the very real possibility of significant losses.

So, are you ready for the $170,000 rollercoaster? Or are you going to watch from the sidelines, sipping a lemonade, content with a smaller, but safer, return? The choice is yours. Just remember Dave and his Mustang.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research.