The crypto community is abuzz with excitement about Bitcoin’s upcoming “synthetic halving.” We hear that ETFs, long-term holders, and institutions are in some cases already consuming this supply, doing the work of a traditional halving. Reality 11 Demand will far exceed supply and we’ll all be drinking champagne on the Moon! That's the narrative, anyway. Let's pump the brakes. I just think that, frankly, we’re being sold a bill of goods.

Is This Organic Demand Or Something Else?

Let’s join the dots that aren’t normally joined. Remember the 2008 financial crisis? What fueled it? Allot artificially inflated demand for mortgage-backed securities, fueled by institutions that cared more about short-term profits than long-term stability.

Organic, grassroots adoption isn’t the same as institutions like MicroStrategy buying up Bitcoin hand over fist. And that’s concentrated buying power, but it can create artificial scarcity. It's like a handful of whales controlling the entire ocean's resources. Swan expects a “violent, irreversible” upward spike. Aren’t those a dozen or two tokens the building blocks of a geopolitical strategy?

Ask yourself this: why hasn't Bitcoin already broken out? We see exchanges balances at multi-year lows, institutional accumulation at all-time highs, but the price is stagnant. Short-term traders and profit-takers are selling. The real issue is: are they really selling, or is it just a controlled distribution from the big guys before the next leg up? So it’s a high-stakes game of musical chairs. When the music stops, at least some of these retail investors will be left standing without a seat. Keep in mind, mid-term holders’ average acquisition price is approximately $94,550. What happens if it dips below that? Panic.

Here's another uncomfortable truth: the lack of robust regulation is a breeding ground for market manipulation. In Singapore, where I’m now based, regulators are being far more conservative with the rules around crypto than in the US. They understand the dangers of unbridled institutional power and the irreparable harm it can cause retail investors.

Regulatory Blind Spot? Think Again

The SEC is still trying to catch up, but in the interim, the crypto world remains the Wild West. We need transparency. We need accountability. We will require regulators ready to throw up the red flag and say, “Enough is enough.”

Now look, I’m not calling Bitcoin a scam. Now, I’m not saying pump the brakes — but what I am saying is that we need to be realistic. This "synthetic halving" narrative feels manufactured. Otherwise, it feels like a fancy term to rationalize totally unearned, sky-high valuations and bait non-savvy investors. Don't be fooled.

Youtube influencer Capo Of Crypto thinks Bitcoin will have a final consolidation in the range of $92,000 to $98,000. The $98,000 level is proving to be a tough resistance hurdle. The inability to break this industry’s resistance is just as telling. This is a good sign; it means that the supposed demand is weaker than we’re told. It implies that the big buyers are happy to let them build up gradually and so we stay in the range without a breakout.

Perhaps it’s to force out the weak hands. Perhaps it’s to stack more sats at a discount price. Maybe the point is to make your bubble that much bigger. When that bubble does finally burst, most Americans will be the ones left holding the bag.

The $98,000 Wall. Why This Matters

My advice? Do your own research. Don't blindly follow the hype. And as always, if it seems too good to be true, it just might be. But the synthetic halving would be real. Explore DEMO, but keep the narrative around it at arm’s length and with a sense of skepticism. Be careful out there. Your financial future depends on it.

What is the endgame?

Maybe it's to shake out the weak hands. Maybe it's to accumulate even more Bitcoin at a lower price. Or maybe, just maybe, it's to create a bubble that will eventually burst, leaving a lot of people holding the bag.

My advice? Do your own research. Don't blindly follow the hype. And remember, if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. The "synthetic halving" might be real, but the narrative surrounding it should be approached with a healthy dose of skepticism. Be careful out there. Your financial future depends on it.