Bitcoin. The rebellious, angry teenage upstart of finance has entered its midlife crisis. Remember when the halving was the event? The party starter of every bull run? Those days, like dialup internet, may be going the way of the digital dinosaurs.

Are Halvings Just Nostalgia Now?

Onchain analyst James Check is blowing up right now. Today though, Francisco argues that Bitcoin is maturing, and it is maturing beyond the predictable four-year Bitcoin halving cycle. It’s a bold claim. Since the beginning, the halving has been an essential tenet of the Bitcoin ethos. It is actually a scheduled cut in the speed at which new Bitcoins enter circulation. Halving occurs, followed by a supply shock, which drives the price upward. Simple, right?

Not so fast. Check would argue that these cycles are losing their death-like grip. And to be frank, judging by how the market has behaved over the last few weeks, it’s difficult to fault that thinking entirely. We've seen Bitcoin react to macro events with a sensitivity that rivals a teenager's mood swings. Tariffs, interest rates, even Elon Musk’s tweets… these variables appear to have more influence than an already known, pre-programmed supply cut.

Think about it like this: Bitcoin used to be a small, isolated village. The halving was the annual harvest festival, a sure shot way to energize the local economy. But now, that village has turned into a global metropolis, intimately tied to the international financial system. The local harvest continues to matter, but it’s overwhelmed by the huge tides of international trade.

The third game-changer These are not the cypherpunks of early Internet freedom, motivated by ideological zeal. They’re often some of the most sophisticated players, just looking at Bitcoin as another asset, looking at macroeconomic factors and looking at risk adjusted returns. They’re the wise, responsible, experienced adults in the Bitcoin room.

Macro's Taking Over The Driver's Seat

The truth is, we're in uncharted territory. The legacy frameworks, the easy story lines, aren’t adding up. The lines between bull and bear markets are starting to fade, melting into a bearish bull marketish grizz that’s more confusing than it sounds. So the halving is still critical, but it’s far from the only thing and by far not the most important thing.

Even if it’s positive, this shift is disconcerting for so many. We crave certainty. We all desire that atlas, that promise of what we will receive in the years ahead. The market isn’t interested in what we wish would happen.

Consider the tech industry. Remember Moore's Law? Remember the key prediction that computing power would double every two years? It remained true for most of the last century, fueling prosperity and technological advancement. Eventually, it started to slow down. Physics imposed limits. New paradigms emerged. In a parallel way, Bitcoin’s halving cycles may be encountering their own “physics problem” – the unstoppable force of global economics.

What Scenarios Should We Prepare For?

So, what now? Do we abandon all the lessons of the halving playbook? Probably not. We need to adapt. We need to stop thinking in terms of projections and start thinking in terms of scenarios. What happens if inflation remains high? What if interest rates continue to rise? What if there’s a big geopolitical event that throws the global economy into turmoil?

Recommended ten-year marks points to the $70,000-$75,000 range as an important short- to medium-term “confidence zone.” This is where Bitcoin really has to step up its gains and support future investment. If it can’t maintain this support, it would likely indicate a more profound correction.

  • Scenario 1: Bitcoin breaks through $75,000 and establishes a new all-time high.
  • Scenario 2: Bitcoin consolidates between $60,000 and $75,000, demonstrating resilience.
  • Scenario 3: Bitcoin falls below $60,000, triggering a wave of selling pressure.

Each scenario requires a different investment strategy. There is always the probability of the even more unpredictable “black swan” event. That would require something truly unforeseeable, like a pandemic or harsh new regime-wide regulations.

The key takeaway is this: Bitcoin is no longer a simple, predictable asset. It’s a complicated, changing landscape, shaped by many forces at work. This is the deliberate complexity we need to embrace, adapt our strategies towards, and be prepared to do anything and everything.

The halving could deliver some lift after all, a ghost of that former lift. The real drivers of Bitcoin's future will be the same forces that shape the rest of the global economy: innovation, adoption, and the ever-shifting sands of investor sentiment. It's a bit scary, sure. But it's incredibly exciting.

Bitcoin’s midlife crisis could be the perfect moment for it to embrace the reinvention that will help it shine. And for us, it’s an opportunity to be better, smarter, more sophisticated, more intelligent investors.