Did you feel it? That…anticlimactic thud? The last Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024 and yes, the price did surge a little but it all seemed…hollow. The big bash they all thought would happen didn’t come to pass. Gone are the days of guaranteed moonshots. For the halving narrative, once a gospel truth passed hand to hand in crypto communities, that’s beginning to sound a bit… stale. 56% increase? Respectable, sure. But juxtapose that with the fireworks, the parrots and the confetti of past halvings, and that sense of wonder just doesn’t exist.

Halvings: Diminishing Returns?

Let’s face it, the halving hype machine has been full bore for decades now. Whenever the reward for mining a block is cut in half, it creates market excitement. There’s a perception that this added scarcity will drive price inflation like never before. Historically, that held true. This time? Not so much.

  • Previous Halvings: Significant price surges.
  • 2024 Halving: A comparatively modest increase.

Several reasons. The market is more mature. Institutional investors are in the game. I think there’s something more insidious at work. The halving is a supply-side event. It restricts the flow of new Bitcoin. What if the problem isn't supply? What if it's…demand?

We are getting near the time when looking exclusively at the halving is a very shortsighted view. It’s like focusing all our energy on one gear in an elaborate clock. By 2028, about 97.7% of all Bitcoin will be mined. Thus the halving’s effect on new supply becomes insignificant. Think of it like this: you're trying to make a splash in a swimming pool by adding a few drops of water. The pool is already full.

Beyond the Hype: Community is Key

This isn’t — or at least, this shouldn’t be — the real story around algorithms and block rewards. It's about people. It's about the Bitcoin community. What are they building? What are they using Bitcoin for? Are they still believing?

I’ve been writing a lot over the past weeks with an audience broader than the typical crypto echo chamber. Speaking to one small business owner in Argentina who used Bitcoin to escape hyperinflation and government clampdowns. I recently spoke with a developer in Nigeria who was designing a remittance application to assist families in sending money back and forth across borders. I spoke with a cadre of activists and human rights defenders through Venezuela. They’re building a new media landscape with Bitcoin funding to combat authoritarianism on all fronts around the world.

These aren't just numbers on a screen. These are real people, like you and me, using Bitcoin to solve real problems. This is where Bitcoin’s true value lies. This is what will set in motion widespread adoption, not a 2024 date randomly plucked from the calendar.

I further believe that when properly implemented, Bitcoin can be a tool for social good—in particular for developing countries. Picture a world where everyone – no matter where they live or what they earn – can bank and pay securely and efficiently. Picture this, a world where you have the complete power over your own money without constantly being manipulated by governments and banks. This is the promise of Bitcoin, and it’s a promise we have to continue fighting for.

  • Argentina: Bypassing hyperinflation.
  • Nigeria: Streamlining remittances.
  • Venezuela: Funding activism.

So, what about the 2028 halving? Will it be another damp squib? Possibly. Here's the thing: it doesn't have to be.

2028 and Beyond: Demand Will Dictate

The future of Bitcoin lies in the hands of us, the community. We need to bring the conversation away from the supply-side hype and back to the demand-side reality. We need to build real-world use cases. In order to advance Bitcoin adoption, we as educators need to arm individuals with the positive value that Bitcoin brings. In order for that innovation to happen, we have to create an environment conducive to it being used. We need to fight for its adoption.

Think about it: If in 2028, Bitcoin is widely used for international trade, decentralized finance, and protecting savings in unstable economies, do you think the halving will matter as much? I don't.

The conversation needs to shift. Not just about scarcity, but utility. More than price predictions, more than a real world impact.

If our community meets this moment, together we can build a better world in which Bitcoin and its values can flourish. If that’s the case, the 2028 halving—and every subsequent halving—will just be a footnote in a much larger story. Its follow-up tale chronicled the role a decentralized currency played in empowering the individual and altering the world. If we continue to make decisions based on hype and speculation then the halving will come and go. Let’s make sure it doesn’t end up as only a fond memory.

The real question isn’t whether or not the halving will pump the price. The question is: will we build something worth demanding? Only time will tell, and that’s up to all of us.

The question isn't whether the halving will pump the price. The question is: will we build something worth demanding? Only time, and our collective efforts, will tell.