Picture a young student in Mumbai, avoiding costly banking charges to pay for online classes with Bitcoin. This was the promise, wasn't it? Real financial freedom, achieving it is within reach of anyone with an internet connection. The recent halving anniversary has me wondering: Is that promise fading, replaced by the cold, calculated logic of Wall Street?

Has Bitcoin Lost Its Soul?

The numbers don't lie. This cycle is different. A paltry 31% rise after the halving like the 436% of previous cycles? That’s not only a slowdown in growth, it’s a seismic shift. We're told it's a maturing market. Maturing for whom? For the institutional investors who are currently calling the shots?

Let’s face it, the wild west days of crypto were not only chaotic and unpredictable but risky. They were exhilarating. Think back to when you first found the new altcoin you thought would 100x. The joy of giving the finger to Wall Street, the banks, and the establishment? That energy is waning, supplanted by the funeral dirge phrases of pessimistic economists forecasting “subpar growth.” Let’s be clear, moderate growth doesn’t improve living conditions tremendously in developing countries. It enriches hedge funds.

Halving Hype Already Priced In?

This time the opposite was true, with the surge happening in advance of the halving event. That’s the same as planning your Christmas in July, and then being surprised that December 25th day is a bit… underwhelming. It’s why the halving was once thought to be the undisputed kingmaker of crypto rallies. Now, it plays second fiddle to interest rates and institutional investment strategies.

Think of it like this: Bitcoin used to be a scrappy indie band, building a following through raw talent and grassroots enthusiasm. Now, it’s signed to a major label. Its artistry is refined, its bite is rounded, and the bottom line? You catch my drift. That halving was supposed to be the perfect catalyst for another wild ride. But the progressives’ institutions went in early, drawing all the air out of the room. Did they front-run retail investors? You be the judge.

Is Bitcoin Still People's Crypto?

The Long-Term Holder MVRV is shrinking. In layman’s terms, long-term believers are the people who stuck by their assets during market volatility. At the same time, now they are facing lower profit multiples than in past cycles. It's like being a loyal customer of a company only to find out the best deals are reserved for new subscribers.

We have heard online from gamers who feel completely priced out, like the game has changed entirely on them. One person from Nigeria wrote, "I used to believe Bitcoin was my escape. Now, I'm not so sure." Another said, "It feels like the whales are just playing with us." These aren’t Senator Schumer’s petulant whines, these are the complaints of the peons who paved the road for the crypto revolution. Are we leaving them behind?

The reasoning is that as Bitcoin’s market cap gets larger, explosive percentage gains begin to be more difficult to realize. Okay, I get that. In our pursuit of stability, are we giving up the promise of an independent, decentralized, accessible currency that can’t be controlled by a single entity? Are we exchanging the potential for transformative wealth for the delivery of average returns? It's a valid question to ask.

Perhaps the halcyon days of wild Bitcoin appreciation are behind us. Maybe moderate growth is the new normal. Before we uncork the champagne for "institutional maturity," let's remember the people who made Bitcoin what it is today. Let's ask ourselves: Is this the future we envisioned? Or have we, as so many have previously argued, sold our soul to Wall Street in exchange for a token seat at the negotiation table.

What do you think? Is Bitcoin still fulfilling its original vision? Let's talk about it.