One year out from the last Bitcoin halving, and the air is dense with self-congratulatory chest-thumping. "See? We told you so! Halving equals moon!" Hold your horses for a moment. First, are we truly confident that the halving was the magic bullet people like to think it was? Or, as crypto-enthusiasts are so often wont to do, are we confusing correlation with causation? I think the latter.
Did Scarcity Actually Drive Price?
The fundamental argument for why the halving will be bullish comes down to simple supply and demand. Cut the amount of new Bitcoin coming in half, and the price has to increase accordingly, no question about it. It's Econ 101. The market isn't a textbook. It’s a wild, volatile monster powered by emotion, speculation, and yes, perhaps most importantly—the right tweet at the right time. Here’s the rub—everybody was fully aware of the halving. It's in the code. It's not a surprise. To think that it wasn’t already priced into the value of Bitcoin is almost willfully ignorant.
Think about it like this: imagine a company announces a stock buyback. Does the stock just naturally shoot up on the announcement day? No. Smart investors have already seen the move coming and built it into investment models. The same principle applies to Bitcoin. The scarcity narrative may be strong, but it’s no promise of future price appreciation.
Trump: The Real Crypto Catalyst?
Now, here’s where it gets fun, and maybe controversial. What if post-halving surge was really not related to the halving? What if the real rocket fuel was something different entirely? For the sake of argument, let’s consider what it would mean if Donald Trump were to win a second term. In this case, he campaigns in very pro-crypto fashion.
Now, before you crypto-anarchists get any ideas about sharpening your pitch forks, let me explain. Donald Trump being re-elected would indeed be a black swan, in the strict and real meaning of the term. That’s why this powerful endorsement from America’s most senior political figure – former President Jimmy Carter – is so impactful. This, combined with the promise of friendlier regulations and even the potential for a national Bitcoin reserve, sends ripples through the market. And that’s the kind of thing that is not easy to price in. That’s how you start to really move the needle.
Consider this: Halvings are programmed, predictable events. Political changes, by contrast, are the opposite — messy, unpredictable, and often driven by extreme emotion. What do you all expect has a greater effect on market sentiment.
"Digital Gold": A Dangerous Delusion?
For me, the “digital gold” narrative has never sat quite right. Bitcoin has always claimed to be a safe-haven asset. This notion doesn’t hold much water when put under stress by times of economic crisis. Consider how it stacks up against gold during times of stock market turmoil. The data is clear: Bitcoin behaves more like a risky tech stock than a traditional safe haven, a growth stock. And that's fine, as long as you understand what you're getting into.
| Asset | Behavior During Economic Uncertainty |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin | Volatile, correlated with tech stocks |
| Gold | Relatively stable, often increases in value |
This is not to argue that Bitcoin doesn’t have value. It does. But it’s a dangerous, speculative value, driven by hype, hope, and the promise of future gains. It’s not a reliable hedge against inflation or economic collapse. If you care about stability, invest in relatively stable assets.
While the Bitcoin halving is certainly a fascinating technical event, it is not a magic money printer. The reality is that the market is much more complicated than this. Don't fall for the hype. As always, do your own due diligence, recognize that early-stage venture investments carry risk, and invest responsibly. So, if you want to go park by park, get ready. Just imagine it though, the next Bitcoin bull run could be sparked by something even less foreseeable than a line of code! Perhaps it will be shaped by something equally unforeseen and tumultuous as, oh I don’t know—one particular election, perhaps.
