The Bitcoin faithful are celebrating. ETFs have arrived, institutional money is flooding in, and the price was — well still is — shooting to the moon. Hold off on mortgaging the house and purchasing the best of the best, because there are some important things the headlines are failing to mention. This is anything but your classic bull run. This isn’t a real bull run, it’s a bull run on training wheels and those training wheels are starting to fall apart.
Just days after hitting an all-time high of $85k, we’re already witnessing Bitcoin breaking the $92,000 mark. That 8.55% jump felt good, didn't it? Then reality bites. Profit-taking. The oldest story in the book. Those that purchased low are now considering selling high, and they should be taking their time to do so. That’s perfectly rational. The CryptoQuant data tells the story: 3,135 BTC flowed into exchanges. Selling pressure, plain and simple.
Of course, everybody and their dog is excited about the imminent US Bitcoin spot ETFs. As per SoSoValue, they had a huge net inflow of $916.91 million just on Wednesday. Three consecutive days of inflows – that’s the story. Institutional validation! Here's the unexpected connection: ETFs are like those ultra-processed foods that taste amazing but are nutritionally empty. You get an instant jolt from market price increases. These don’t build long-term health or foster a vibrant, really stable, organic Bitcoin network.
Think about it: ETF inflows are driven by a few massive players, institutions chasing quick returns. What do we do when interest rates do inevitably tick up again? What do you think happens when one of the world’s largest hedge funds decides Bitcoin isn’t the genius new toy on the block? They pull out. And when they pull out, that $916.91 million can disappear quicker than you can say “bear market.” This isn't organic demand driven by genuine belief in Bitcoin's underlying technology; it's demand generated by financial engineering. That makes it inherently fragile.
The principal ETF illusion was that it gave you a permanent and steady bid. It doesn't.
This is where the anxiety kicks in. More than anything else, the dread that perhaps—just perhaps—we might all be going just a bit overboard. The Bitcoin Exchange Netflow is the canary in the coal mine. And big new cash is flooding in through the ETF front door. In the meantime, legacy dollars are eerily sneaking out the back door. This divergence is critical. It continues to highlight a major underlying flaw in this rally so far. A few hundred of these investors are holding the hands of their flailing peers, quietly supporting the stock price. In the meantime, early adopters are cashing out. That's not a recipe for long-term success.
What occurs when all those early adopters want to take profits at once. What will occur when the ETF inflows decelerate, or perhaps even go into reverse? We’re left wholly exposed, continuing to stand on our own version of a foundation made out of sand.
The heady “Risk-on” mood may be the most insidious distraction. It’s underpinned by what many see as a possible softening of the Trump administration’s approach to trade with China and dovish undertones from the Fed. As Asian stock markets skyrocket in exuberance, note that all these are exogenous factors. All have very little to do with Bitcoin’s intrinsic value. They aren’t permanent solutions—they are temporary fiscal salves that merely mask underlying vulnerabilities.
The technical analysis paints a similar picture. The most bullish short term sign would have been breaking above the 200 day EMA at $85,000 but it encountered strong resistance just under $95,000. Support is expected around $90,000. The RSI, which is at 63 right now, may be the first indicator to start flashing red warning signs. It's fading. Any fall below 50 might signal a more dramatic drop.
These technical indicators, combined with the ETF/Exchange Netflow divergence, create a compelling narrative. This rally is unsustainable. We’re overdue for a correction, and it can be a painful one.
So, what do you do? Don't panic. But don't be complacent. Take a hard look at your portfolio. Ask yourself: Am I comfortable with the risk? Am I reading too much into the ETF narrative? Or have I overlooked the possibility of a big short?
This isn't financial advice. It's a dose of realism. The Bitcoin ETF euphoria is keeping most traders’ sights averted from the near-doorstep profit-taking cliff. Don't be one of them. Prepare for the inevitable. Do your own research. And keep in mind, often the best investment is the one you decide not to make.
I am not a financial advisor. As always, this is my personal opinion and should not be construed as investment advice. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
So, what do you do? Don't panic. But don't be complacent. Take a hard look at your portfolio. Ask yourself: Am I comfortable with the risk? Am I relying too heavily on the ETF narrative? Have I considered the potential for a significant correction?
This isn't financial advice. It's a dose of realism. The Bitcoin ETF euphoria is blinding many to the lurking profit-taking cliff. Don't be one of them. Prepare for the inevitable. Do your own research. And remember, sometimes the smartest investment is the one you don't make.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This is my personal opinion and should not be taken as investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions.
