Let's be honest. The headlines are screaming. Bitcoin blew past $95,000. Everyone's talking about it, again. Or your neighbor is unsure whether she should put her life savings into the crypto craze. Now even the hipster barista and your grandma are wondering! The question is not whether she can do it — but whether she should.

Grandma's Retirement or Crypto Casino?

Imagine this: Grandma Betty, bless her heart, calls you up. She's heard about Bitcoin doubling again. She is planning on cashing out some of her 401K. This is the fund she crudely stocked over 30-plus years, and now she’s finally poised to jump into the digital deep end.

Now, before you get the image of her drinking Mai Tais on a beach paid for by crypto profits, let’s slow down. The siren song of Bitcoin's potential is powerful, but it can be deceptive, especially for someone who isn't glued to the markets 24/7.

The case for Bitcoin as world’s long-term store of value is pretty convincing. Limited supply, digital scarcity, the whole shebang. MicroStrategy is holding billions! Companies are piling in! Grandma Betty isn't MicroStrategy. Her risk tolerance is likely significantly lower. She cannot afford for a big part of her retirement to disappear if the market goes into a tailspin. Unlike Microstrategy, Grandma doesn’t have the option to issue new shares after the fact if something goes belly up.

That brings us to an unexpected connection: Investing in Bitcoin right now is a bit like betting on a horse race after the horse has already crossed the finish line. Yes, it can still win the race over time, but the chances are not nearly as favorable as when they first departed the starting gate.

Beyond the Halving Hype Cycle

And the Bitcoin faithful are not shy to highlight the halving anniversaries. In the past, occurrences that reduce the incentive for mining new blocks by fifty percent have brought skyrocketing prices. Look for this pattern to repeat in years to come! It's a neat narrative, a built-in scarcity mechanism that's supposed to propel the price ever higher. And in the face of macroeconomic difficulties, bitcoin has jumped almost 50% since the last halving.

Past performance is never a guarantee of future results. Today, relying only on historical trends is similar to trying to navigate with an old 1800s era map. It can be used as a rough guide, but even that misses a lot of the newly launched high rises that have gone up since then.

Think of it like this: the internet bubble. And everyone was declaring that the internet was going to change the world (it was!) and billion-dollar dot-com stocks were popping up like dandelions. But as we’ve seen this past year, many of those companies were built on shaky foundations. When the bubble burst, millions of average investors lost their shirts. Anxiety is a normal response to possible loss, and responsible investing means reducing that anxiety, not increasing it.

Is Bitcoin Ready For Main Street?

Bitcoin is more frequently being seen as a mature, long term asset. Binance’s Regional VP for Latin America Guilherme Nazar agrees that the recent price surge helps solidify this narrative. Even if it is “mature,” is it really accessible?

Let's talk practicality. Purchasing Bitcoin is not as straightforward as purchasing equities. Grandma Betty doesn’t want to have to learn about exchanges, wallets, or private keys. She has to be protected from the rising tide of scams and hacks. Utility is key here: is the learning curve worth the potential reward?

What about regulation? As Bitcoin’s price continues to rise, you can be sure that national governments and regulatory watchdogs are watching closely. With increased scrutiny, harder regulation is always a danger, and this looming uncertainty would penetrate the market in unpredictable fashions. This uncertainty poses a danger, particularly to novice investors.

So, should you finally get your grandma to make that purchase? Maybe. But only after she’s completed her own diligence, knows the potential risks, and only puts in what she’s comfortable losing. Don’t allow the FOMO (fear of missed opportunities) to mislead her. The best investment is an informed investment. The question isn't whether Bitcoin can make her richer, but whether it's the right choice for her specific financial situation. That's a question worth asking. So help her sleep easy, regardless of what the market may do.