That steady $84,000 Bitcoin price you're seeing? Don't get comfortable. As a UK-based economic and market analyst, I am increasingly observing major red flags that the mainstream is willfully overlooking. This isn’t stability, it’s a dead cat bounce just before the long-awaited big correction.

Hawkish Fed, Hawkish Bitcoin Future?

The biggest elephant in the room is the Federal Reserve. Forget the rumors of June rate cuts! The Fed’s hawkishness, prompted by unexpected strength in US retail sales – up 1.4% in March – was bad news for risk-on assets including Bitcoin. Think about it: strong retail sales mean sustained inflation. Sustained inflation means the Fed holds firm. No rate cuts mean a stronger dollar. Stronger dollar means weaker Bitcoin.

It's more than just the Fed. Consider Trump's potential tariff policies. Though well intentioned, these tariffs will add additional inflationary pressures at a time when we can least afford it. The Fed cannot ignore this. This confluence of hazards creates a double whammy. Added to this existing inflationary pressures is tariff-induced inflation which further forces the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance for a longer duration. This is a toxic cocktail for Bitcoin’s price.

The mainstream media would like you to think otherwise—especially when it comes Bitcoin. They want you to believe that it’s the perfect hedge. Don't fall for it.

ETF Outflows Signal Institutional Doubt

You guys were really excited about Bitcoin ETFs weren’t you. The institutional floodgates were supposed to open. Consider this Wednesday’s $169.87 million outflow. That’s not a blip, it’s a warning shot. This is alarming as institutions, the alleged smart money, are leaving. Guess what—they’re seeing the same warning signs I am.

Ask yourself: why would institutions be selling now, if they believed in Bitcoin's long-term potential at these levels? The answer is simple: they don't. They’re taking profits and running, cleaning up before the shitstorm arrives.

Think of it like this: it's like watching rats fleeing a sinking ship. The ship (Bitcoin's price) might seem stable for now, but the rats (institutions) know something you don't. Listen to the rats.

$85K Resistance A Brick Wall?

Technically speaking, Bitcoin's struggling. The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just below $85,000 is currently serving as a strong resistance level. We've seen repeated rejections at this point. The RSI stuck around the midpoint corroborates this lack of decisiveness. There's no strong bullish or bearish momentum. It's a stalemate.

Stalemates don't last forever. In this case, the macro underpinnings are unambiguously bearish. The market’s snail development infatuation with Fed rate cuts pricing in June, but that hope is going up in smoke. The upcoming US economic data releases (jobless claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, housing market data) will likely confirm the Fed's hawkish stance and trigger the next leg down.

I’m not predicting Bitcoin is going to zero. So while the National Housing Conference is right that this $84,000 holdout is a trap, it’s not solely about housing. A tempting story, artfully crafted to reel in stragglers just before the trapdoor opens.

Could Bitcoin defy the odds? Sure. A close above $85,000 might set off a rally to at least $90,000 and possibly even challenge the March 2 high of $95,000. That’s a huge if, and the deck is stacked against it. A more likely scenario? A bearish scenario is a retest of the $78,258 support level, and possibly lower.

I am not a financial advisor, and this is not investment advice. Always do your own research and never invest money you can’t afford to lose in any cryptocurrency.

Consider yourself warned.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and this is not investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any cryptocurrency.