How about $137,000 Bitcoin? Everybody and their mother has a price target these days. Titan of Crypto’s 2nd bullish prediction for Q3 of 2025 is the most recent, but it was driven by Treasury liquidity and bullish pennants. Let's pump the brakes. Are we on the cusp of a true breakout, or merely another liquidity-induced mirage that will soon evaporate? I’m hoping on the side of the latter, and here’s why.

Institutions Blinded by Shiny New Toy?

Everyone's drooling over ETF inflows. Retail investors are getting the other 80% of those ETF flows, as they’re rushing into these ETFs. Institutions like MicroStrategy keep buying the dips, and Bernstein analysts are throwing around $200,000 price targets based on ETF inflows. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy...until it isn't.

Think about it: institutions are notoriously prone to herd behavior. They see the momentum, they want in. But are they really getting to the bottom of the technology and risks with it, or going in an attempt to catch a quick buck? Remember the dot-com bubble? Same energy. But the real unexpected link is the fear of missing out. This deeply rooted reaction has the ability to trump the best risk management plans, too. And what happens when the music stops?

That $70+ billion in ETF inflows that Bernstein is calling for? It hinges on continued positive sentiment. What if geopolitical tensions escalate? What if yields suddenly spike? What if a major exchange gets hacked? Poof. Goodbye narrative, and good riddance to the $0.50 price.

Treasury's TGA: A Double-Edged Sword?

All right, those liquidity injections by the U.S. Treasury are big too.… $500 billion just since February, with at least another $600 billion in the pipeline …The story goes that this new liquidity pours into risk assets such as bitcoin. This does make sense... initially. It creates a temporary artificial demand. But consider this: The Treasury isn't just printing money out of thin air. This liquidity has to be coming from somewhere, usually through some sort of debt issuance. Whether it’s healthcare costs, climate change or something else, at some point the piper has to be paid.

  • Increased Debt: leads to...
  • Higher Taxes/Reduced Spending: leads to...
  • Economic Slowdown: leads to...
  • Risk-Off Sentiment: leads to...
  • Bitcoin Price Crash:

The link between these two is the perception of free money. The government is unable to continue on the path of forever pouring liquidity into the system without repercussions. When those consequences come to bear, Bitcoin, as a high-beta asset, will most probably be the first and hardest to tank. The trouble starts when you figure out that the good times can’t go on indefinitely. Pictured above, you already know that hangover is about to be BEEEEEF.

Gold Knows Something Bitcoin Doesn't?

As Bitcoin steals headlines, gold is stealing the show. Kretov’s point that geopolitical tensions and economic fragility could benefit gold before Bitcoin is an interesting one to consider. Gold has served as a safe-haven asset for hundreds of years. Bitcoin? Barely over a decade.

Look, I'm not a Bitcoin hater. What I’m suggesting is that Bitcoin has never really been put to the test. Gold has shown its resilience time and again during challenging times. The unexpected connection? Trust. Gold has earned it. Bitcoin is still trying to. This is the reason that I think gold will be the main destination for capital as a safe haven when the SHTF.

Bitcoin’s daily trading volume is currently near $28.7 billion. The gold market has a daily trading volume more than 80 times this amount. It’s more liquid, more established and less prone to for want of a better term speculative craziness than crypto.

The $137,000 target? It's a possibility, sure. But it's a gamble. A bet that the liquidity continues to flow, the institutions continue to buy, and the world stays at least somewhat stable. I'm not betting on it. I’ve been long gold and short downturns and macroeconomic hell in general. After all, occasionally the most classic remedies prove to be ideal. Avoid being dazzled by the shiny new object.