$100,000 Bitcoin. We finally made it. Everyone's screaming "to the moon!" Pump the brakes. Is this truly a new creative plateau, or simply a dangerous high place made from ring mucky earth? What I’m hearing instead is celebratory blow tooting, without as much critical analysis. Let's inject some realism into this party.

Is This Trade Deal Really A Deal?

The headlines blare "China-US Trade Agreement Reached!". Okay, great. Let's dig deeper. We’re referring to a principled consensus on market access, IP protection, and dispute settlement. Sounds promising, right? Where are the details? What specific tariffs are being rolled back? Which sectors of the economy gain, and which lose out…

Frankly, the lack of specifics is deafening. Remember the Trump era? Policy reversals were the norm. But how can we be certain that this agreement won’t meet the same fate? This isn’t a real deal yet though—it’s more like a tentative agreement.

This cautious optimism mirrors the early days of Bitcoin ETFs. Everyone piled in, expecting instant riches. But the reality is far more nuanced. In much the same way, this trade agreement could relieve inflationary pressures and allow the Fed to lower interest rates, providing a powerful tailwind for Bitcoin. But it might just as easily collapse, forcing investors to seek refuge in gold and other safe-haven assets.

Don't blindly trust the headlines. Demand specifics. Temper your expectations.

Miners Aren't Selling? So What?

Okay, the news is out: miner selling pressure is at a cycle low. They’re accumulating Bitcoin now that it has blasted past $100k, expecting over $500k. This is touted as the new, unbeatable bullish omen. I disagree.

Indeed, less miner selling pressure is net bullish. But that’s far from a promise of a rocket ship to $200,000. First, we need to understand why miners are holding, to ITM in particular.

  • Post-Halving Adaptation: They have to adapt. Their income was slashed in half. Holding is often the only viable strategy.
  • Industry Consolidation: Larger, listed companies are dominating the mining landscape. This reduces exit risk for less efficient miners. It does not mean they are inherently bullish.

Here's where the unintended consequences come in. While less miner selling is a good thing, it can make us complacent. It can attract gullible novice traders who overly leverage their positions, which is particularly dangerous in the derivatives market. Speaking of that, the leverage between $100,000 and $110,000 is terrifying. Such a sudden price drop would likely set off cascading liquidations, crashing out millions of leveraged traders.

Significantly, over 80% of Bitcoin has not moved in over 6 months. That's a strong signal of long-term conviction. However, strong that conviction may be, it doesn’t erase the potential for short-term volatility driven by leverage and uncertainty.

Miner behavior is just one piece of the puzzle. Don't get caught up in the hype. Manage your risk.

Risk Assets & Geopolitical Shifts

Bitcoin has climbed to $104,250 (as of 5/12/25). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is already flashing “overbought” across many exchanges, leaving the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) as the last bull standing for now. This is indecisive. Technical indicators are mixed, the US-China trade deal is up in the air, and miner events are a wild card. So, what can we be sure of?

The reality is that Bitcoin is still deeply correlated with traditional risk assets. Its correlation with the Nasdaq is 0.78. What this suggests is that if the stock market crashes, Bitcoin will certainly crash with it. The “safe haven” narrative has yet to survive its strictest test.

Here's the unexpected connection: Improved China-US relations could shift market focus to other geopolitical risks, like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East. Clearly, the next crisis will spark another capital flight to safety— but this time, where is that capital going to flow? Will it go to Bitcoin, or will it go to the traditional king of safe havens: gold?

The answer is whatever story is in vogue at that moment. If Bitcoin can successfully position itself as a mature, institutionalized asset, it stands to benefit. But if it’s seen more as an inflation-hedged call option on the future of money, gold will lose out.

Diversify your portfolio. Avoid overconcentration in Bitcoin investing. We’ll discuss the benefits of maintaining a diversified portfolio with stocks, bonds, and precious metals.

$100,000 is a milestone, not a launchpad. Stay grounded. Stay informed. And most importantly, stay diversified. Indeed, the future of Bitcoin has never been brighter, but it’s far from certain.