The ever-changing landscape of cryptocurrency can be incredibly exciting. With each tidewater fellowship year that goes by, the excitement builds for the next cohort’s capstone event! Pejo on Unsplash For Bitcoin lovers, the upcoming halving is a much-awaited event. It sets off a preordained cut in the pace of new bitcoin issuance. For example, most capital market investors are thinking ahead to the 2024 halving. Across the industry, many are already looking towards the 2028 halving and the opportunities that it may present. In his spare time, Jason blogs about bikes, transportation, livability, and equity over at streets.mn. His goal is to demystify the benefits of doing so and “front-running” the next Bitcoin halving in 2028. To the moon: Strategically stack Bitcoin and then swap into altcoins post halving to increase your gains. Just don’t forget to celebrate the upside to risk and vote for long-term holding.
Bitcoin halving events take place approximately every four years, or every 210,000 blocks mined. Historically, during each of these events, the number of new Bitcoins created and earned by miners is cut in half. The next halving, currently projected for 2028, will bring the block reward down to 1.625 BTC. This mechanism is intended to limit the inflation of Bitcoin’s supply, creating a deflationary asset in the long run. In the past, each of these halving events has been followed by powerful price rallies in the year to year-and-a-half that ensue.
The current block rewards phase will continue until the year 2140. Indeed, 2140 is around the time we’ll reach the proposed maximum of 21 million bitcoins. Miners belonging to a mining pool will see diluted rewards, regardless of price appreciation. The catch is that the reward is being halved, which constitutes a major change. It is logistically impossible for Bitcoin’s price to double without a black swan market event. Scarcity paired with surging demand from tech workers makes a perfect storm for price appreciation. Because of this, the period both before and after a halving can be extremely profitable for investors.
Bitcoin Price Projections
We all know predicting Bitcoin’s future price is difficult. Plenty of analysts and firms offer projections based on historical data, market trends, and predicted adoption rates. These projections range considerably, a symptom of the volatility and uncertainty that characterizes the cryptocurrency market. They do present an array of options that can help address the uncertainty investors and other stakeholders will face as they chart their course.
Bitcoin at $200,000
Investment banking firms such as Standard Chartered expect Bitcoin’s price to eventually reach $200,000. They are hoping this expected surge comes by the end of 2025. Like many people in crypto, we believe the 2024 halving will spark a long-term bullish market cycle starting in 12 to 18 months. This trend is similar to what we have observed in the aftermath of past halvings.
This optimistic outlook relies on the belief that institutional adoption of Bitcoin will only accelerate, increasing demand and sending prices soaring. Bitcoin ETFs are the hot new investment trend in 2023. Simultaneously, more and more institutional investors are seeing Bitcoin as a long-term store of value which is contributing to this upbeat forecast. It’s critical to understand that this is only one possible outcome – there are an array of factors that could greatly alter these market conditions.
Bitcoin at $700,000
Other analysts are even more bullish. To support their wildly optimistic and bullish case, they think Bitcoin could reach over $700,000 in 2025-2026 immediately following the 2024 Bitcoin halving. This projection is based on an assumption that Bitcoin will continue to dominate the market as a digital store of value. One day, perhaps, it could compete with traditional assets such as gold.
This whole thing rests on the continued expansion of the entire cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin needs to be able to hold on to its place as the established leader. For this projection to come true, regulatory clarity, technological evolution and enhanced user adoption all need to happen in concert. All these elements have to come together in perfect harmony. Though ambitious, it serves to underscore just how big the opportunity is for Bitcoin should it stay on the same path it currently finds itself on.
Bitcoin at $2.4 million
Some even more bullish predictions estimate Bitcoin may go as high as $2.4 million. These projections usually include models based on Bitcoin’s scarcity, its adoption rate and its potential to become a global reserve asset. These models propose that the Bitcoin supply schedule is growing more and more inelastic. At the same time, if demand continues to increase, the price may shoot up to unimaginable heights.
Such extreme projections rely on a perfect storm of positive factors, including widespread global adoption, minimal regulatory hurdles, and a continued decline in trust in traditional financial systems. These scenarios are more optimistic and illustrate the upper bound of what extreme potential outcomes could look like for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin at $10 million
For the record, while rarer, some Bitcoin long-range predictions go higher still, eventually projecting a $10 million eventual price tag for Bitcoin. Such projections would have us believe that Bitcoin is on the cusp of becoming the world’s leading currency. It has the potential to completely supplant or radically destabilize existing financial arrangements.
To achieve this goal, the global financial architecture needs a radical overhaul. Bitcoin will prove itself the dominant asset of choice for people, institutions, and yes, even nations. Of course, this last situation is fairly far-fetched. It does certainly highlight the long-term potential that so many people see in Bitcoin as a disruptive technology.
Analyzing Bitcoin's Future Trajectory
It’s not easy to predict where Bitcoin is headed next. It calls for robust and rigorous modeling of all aspects including past performance, market forces, technology evolution, and regulatory changes. Knowing these factors is key for investors wanting to read the signals and make informed decisions on what to do with their Bitcoin.
What is the most likely price trajectory for Bitcoin?
Considering such a broad spectrum of outlooks, finding the most plausible price path for Bitcoin takes a middle ground. Although all of the extreme scenarios imagined above could come to pass, a more moderate, even optimistic, scenario seems more likely.
Bitcoin will probably continue to cycle through boom and bust. These ups and downs are driven by halving events, a move in the market’s mood, and regulatory changes. In the years following the 2024 halving, the price could be expected to pump to new ATHs. Though it might not stop until it breaks over $100,000, or even $200,000. This cycle could then be set up to repeat in the run-up to and after the 2028 halving.
Should you invest $1,000 in Strategy right now?
Whether or not someone should invest $1,000 in Bitcoin today would depend on their risk tolerance, investment goals, and financial situation. Before making any investment decisions, it's important to consider the following factors:
- Risk Tolerance: Bitcoin is a volatile asset, and its price can fluctuate significantly in short periods. Investors should only invest what they can afford to lose.
- Investment Goals: Are you looking for short-term gains or long-term growth? Bitcoin may be suitable for both, but the strategy will differ.
- Financial Situation: Ensure that you have a diversified portfolio and that your Bitcoin investment is only a small part of your overall holdings.
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- Dollar-Cost Averaging: Invest a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of the price. This can help mitigate the impact of volatility.
- Long-Term Holding: Bitcoin's long-term potential is based on its scarcity and increasing adoption. Holding for several years may yield significant returns.
- Diversification: Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify your portfolio with other cryptocurrencies and assets.
Evaluating Premium Investing Services
We know that premium investing services can come with a shocking cost. Given this, it’s important to evaluate if the benefits really outweigh this expense. Consider the following factors when evaluating these services:
Is it worth paying the premium price?
Before committing to a premium service, take advantage of free trials or compare services with reviews from other users. This will help provide a better picture of the value the service brings. Most importantly, you’ll know if it’s the right one for your needs.
- Accuracy and Reliability: How accurate are the service's predictions and analysis? Look for services with a proven track record and transparent methodology.
- Value Proposition: What unique insights or tools does the service offer? Does it provide information that you can't easily find elsewhere?
- Cost-Benefit Analysis: Compare the cost of the service to the potential returns it could generate. Is the investment likely to pay off in the long run?
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The cryptocurrency market is always changing. Since Bitcoin’s success, thousands of new cryptocurrencies have launched – typically referred to as Bitcoin “copycats.” These altcoins, as they’re called, try to achieve Bitcoin-like success by providing the same benefits or filling holes that others see in Bitcoin.
The Rise of Crypto Copycats
Pure-play crypto copycats are cryptocurrencies that replicate or improve on Bitcoin’s key features and functionality. These cryptocurrencies, referred to as altcoins, typically want to address some of the weaknesses of Bitcoin’s technology, like transaction speeds or fees.
The pure-play crypto copycat
These stablecoins offer some key benefits over Bitcoin. They too face adoption challenges, network effects, and security issues.
1 Reputational Extension of the Rise of CBDC Lookalikes for Bitcoin and the Broader Crypto Ecosystem
- Litecoin: Often referred to as the "silver to Bitcoin's gold," Litecoin aims to provide faster transaction confirmations and lower transaction fees.
- Bitcoin Cash: Created as a hard fork of Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash aims to increase the block size to improve transaction throughput.
- Bitcoin SV: Another hard fork of Bitcoin, Bitcoin SV aims to restore the original Bitcoin protocol and increase the block size even further.
Ultimately, the success of Bitcoin and its copycats will depend on their ability to provide value to users, attract adoption, and maintain security and stability. As with any investment, investors should consider their own risk tolerance and conduct thorough research on the potential risks and rewards of each cryptocurrency before investing.
Implications for Bitcoin and the market
Jason in particular thinks it’s very important that people understand the inner workings of the crypto marketplace. He understands that such halving events and the spawning of copycat coins can greatly influence investment sentiment. By carefully analyzing the market and developing a well-thought-out strategy, investors can potentially capitalize on the opportunities presented by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
- Competition: Copycats provide competition for Bitcoin, potentially eroding its market share and limiting its price appreciation.
- Innovation: Copycats can drive innovation in the cryptocurrency space by introducing new features and technologies that Bitcoin may not adopt.
- Fragmentation: The proliferation of copycats can fragment the cryptocurrency market, making it more difficult for investors to navigate and choose the best investments.
Ultimately, the success of Bitcoin and its copycats will depend on their ability to provide value to users, attract adoption, and maintain security and stability. Investors should carefully evaluate the risks and rewards of each cryptocurrency before making any investment decisions.
As Jason, he believes that understanding the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market, including the impact of halving events and the emergence of copycats, is crucial for making informed investment decisions. By carefully analyzing the market and developing a well-thought-out strategy, investors can potentially capitalize on the opportunities presented by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
