The next Bitcoin halving is projected for 2028. It will halve the new issuance of Bitcoin and test the economic fortitude of the network. This one-time, roughly four-year recurring event will serve to further entrench Bitcoin’s deflationary monetary policy. As such, analysts expect the 2028 halving to reduce block rewards to 1.5625 BTC.
Bitcoin halvings have occurred regularly since 2012. The latest halving was on 20th April 2024, cutting the block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The algorithm adjusts mining difficulty to ensure blocks are mined every 10 minutes on average.
During the 2028 halving, the block reward will be reduced again. Post-halving, miners will only be rewarded 1.5625 BTC per block. The initial block reward was 50 BTC when the network launched in 2009 and it’s been cut in half every four years, or every 210,000 blocks, thereafter.
This is the primary reason that bitcoin halvings create inflationary scarcity, a feature found in assets such as gold. Scarcity is a powerful principle in economics that literally makes things valuable when supply is limited and demand holds steady or expands.
After the 2024 halving, small and medium–sized miners will only come under further pressure. Otherwise, they need to continually upgrade their equipment to stay competitive or not be in business at all. While it may produce a less diverse and thus possibly more efficient, if not more political, mining ecosystem.
Looking back at previous halving events, you can see just how much having a halving event has previously affected Bitcoin’s price. The 2020 halving preceded a 760% price rise in the following 18 months. And although past performance is no guarantee of future results, most analysts have their eyes trained on market dynamics.
Given average block times, the next Bitcoin halving after 2028 is projected to fall on March 30, 2032. These halvings are seismic moments for Bitcoin, with significant effects on miners, investors, and the burgeoning crypto ecosystem.
